Eurostar warns growth depends on bold UK capacity decisions

Eurostar’s UK economic contribution is projected to grow from £2 billion and 23,000 jobs in 2025 to £2.7 billion and more than 40,000 jobs by 2035, according to a new economic impact report produced for the operator by economic consultancy Public First. But at the report’s London launch, which Global Railway Review attended, Eurostar Chief Executive Gwendoline Cazenave warned that reaching that trajectory depends on decisions outside the company’s control.

Genuine growth, not redistribution

Cazenave said progress requires government, infrastructure managers and industry partners to “think bigger”, pointing to decisions on station and depot capacity, including at St Pancras. Long-term investment, she argued, could unlock capacity for “genuine growth” across the sector rather than simply redistributing what already exists.

Lyne Biewinga, Executive Director of the Netherlands British Chamber of Commerce, echoed the call, setting out three requirements for unlocking further growth.

“It means three things,” she said. “A bold approach to people mobility, that enables people to move efficiently between the UK and the mainland. Secondly, infrastructure capacity to support future growth, including additional station and depot space, both in the Netherlands and the UK. And thirdly, a competitive, predictable business environment that encourages investment and innovation in international rail.”

“A bold approach to people mobility, that enables people to move efficiently between the UK and the mainland. Secondly, infrastructure capacity to support future growth, including additional station and depot space, both in the Netherlands and the UK. And thirdly, a competitive, predictable business environment that encourages investment and innovation in international rail” — Lyne Biewinga, Executive Director, Netherlands British Chamber of Commerce

The prize for the UK

Dame Emily Thornberry MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee and MP for Islington South and Finsbury, noted that Eurostar’s headquarters in her constituency already supports 400 local jobs, and pointed to the report’s 2035 projection to make the case for further investment.

“Imagine where we could be by 2035,” she said, “if we invested more in infrastructure like Eurostar, if we built more depots, if we carried more trains, if we introduced more routes.”

Eurostar has carried more than 400 million passengers since services began 30 years ago. Cazenave said the operator’s planned £1.7 billion investment in a new Celestia fleet was part of delivering future growth, alongside new destinations in Geneva and Frankfurt.

“Imagine where we could be by 2035, if we invested more in infrastructure like Eurostar, if we built more depots, if we carried more trains, if we introduced more routes” — Dame Emily Thornberry MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee

Growth already reshaping UK aviation

Tim Leunig, Economics Director at Public First and visiting professor at LSE, offered a live example of what growth already delivers. He argued that Eurostar’s Amsterdam route has reduced short-haul flights between London and the Dutch capital, freeing up scarce take-off and landing slots at Heathrow and Gatwick for new long-haul routes instead.

“When a flight doesn’t have to leave Britain for Amsterdam, that flight can leave Britain for somewhere else – a new destination in China, in India, in Indonesia or an extra flight to San Francisco and Silicon Valley. All of that is good for GDP” — Tim Leunig, Economics Director, Public First

“When a flight doesn’t have to leave Britain for Amsterdam, that flight can leave Britain for somewhere else – a new destination in China, in India, in Indonesia or an extra flight to San Francisco and Silicon Valley,” he said. “All of that is good for GDP.”

He predicted the same pattern would repeat as Eurostar opens routes to Frankfurt and Geneva, given both cities’ reliance on feeder passengers from London to sustain their status as long-haul hub airports.