RIA survey shows UK rail market confidence falling among business leaders

Credit: Shutterstock / Clare Louise Jackson

Confidence in the UK rail market has slumped sharply, with nearly two-thirds of rail business leaders expecting the sector to contract over the next year, and many now freezing recruitment or cutting back their teams, according to a new survey conducted for the Railway Industry Association (RIA).

The Savanta poll of 125 senior leaders, carried out between October and November 2025 ahead of the 26 November Budget, found 64% believe the rail market will shrink in the coming year, up from 48% last year. Only 12% expect growth, compared with 26% in 2024.

Fears of a downturn are already affecting staffing plans: 62% of businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount, and more than a third (34%) are making redundancies. Despite this, suppliers remain relatively optimistic about their own performance, with 44% predicting growth in their businesses over the next 12 months.

Concern about a slowdown in work persists across the sector, with 85% of respondents thinking a hiatus in rail activity is likely in the next year, prompting many firms to prioritise overseas opportunities and scale back UK hiring.

RIA Chief Executive’s response to the findings

RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan described the findings as a stark warning for the sector, saying: “These are concerning findings for the railway industry. Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount. However, it is positive to see that individual rail businesses are generally more confident in their own ability to grow, albeit in a significant number of cases such growth being in overseas markets.

The Railway Industry Association (RIA) and our members have been warning for years about ‘boom and bust’ in rail infrastructure and rolling stock investment, and we have voiced concerns about a hiatus in work as rail currently restructures. This survey is further evidence that more needs to be done to give rail suppliers the confidence they need to compete for work and invest in their business plans and teams for 2026; otherwise, talented people and skills will be lost to other sectors and to overseas markets.”

Looking to the future, Caplan highlighted ongoing major schemes but urged immediate clarity from policymakers. He added: “RIA and our members want to be optimistic that a positive future for UK rail and we recognise major rail projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and Docklands Light Rail extension. But significant steps do need to be taken in the short-term to bring more confidence to the rail market now.

The Government needs to provide more detail about the rail enhancements projects in its Infrastructure Pipeline and produce a rolling stock strategy and pipeline as soon as possible. There needs to be clarity given on plans for innovative forms of funding, whether private or Third Party. And major rail clients need to set out their short and medium term spending plans without delay, especially given we now know the Government’s Spending Review and Budget priorities.

These measures can help mitigate the current market confidence concerns, and provide certainty for suppliers as rail is restructured and Great British Railways is established in the years ahead.”